Pros perus é claro!
“Natal e Ano Novo parecem ser fatores de risco para a morte decorrente de várias doenças”, diz um pessoal da Universidade da Califórnia (EUA). Eles analisaram 57.451.944 registros de óbito feitos entre 1979 e 2004 em hospitais norteamericanos e (apesar de não saberem dizer o porquê) descobriram que mais gente morre nos dias 25 e 26 de dezembro e 1º de janeiro do que em qualquer outro dia do ano (um excesso de 42.325 mortes por causas naturais, que vai além do aumento natural da época).
Detalhe: cai duro e morre!
Nem bate na emergência.
O efeito do mal é mais significativo para quem sofre de um de cinco grupos de doenças: neoplasmas, circulatórias, respiratórias, metabólicas e digestivas. “Mas, com todas as variáveis combinadas, há aumentos de fim de ano em todos os grandes grupos de doenças e em todos os grupos demográficos, com exceção das crianças”
Pare de se queixar da visita da sogra na noite do bom velhinho!
Quem sabe ele não está guardando uma boa surpresa prá vc?
Este Natal ela vai estragar, mas pense nos outros...
Christmas and New Year as risk factors for death
David Phillipsa, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, Gwendolyn E. Barkerb and Kimberly M. Brewera
a Sociology, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr, La Jolla, CA 92093-0533, United States
b Center for Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1772, United States
Available online 5 August 2010.
Abstract
This paper poses three questions: (1) Does mortality from natural causes spike around Christmas and New Year? (2) If so, does this spike exist for all major disease groups or only specialized groups? (3) If twin holiday spikes exist, need this imply that Christmas and New Year are risk factors for death? To answer these questions, we used all official U.S. death certificates, 1979–2004 (n = 57,451,944) in various hospital settings to examine daily mortality levels around Christmas and New Year. We measured the Christmas increase by comparing observed deaths with expected deaths in the week starting on Christmas. The New Year increase was measured similarly. The expected number of deaths was determined by locally weighted regression, given the null hypothesis that mortality is affected by seasons and trend but not by holidays. On Christmas and New Year, mortality from natural causes spikes in dead-on-arrival (DOA) and emergency department (ED) settings. There are more DOA/ED deaths on 12/25, 12/26, and 1/1 than on any other day. In contrast, deaths in non-DOA/ED settings display no holiday spikes. For DOA/ED settings, there are holiday spikes for each of the top five disease groups (circulatory diseases; neoplasms; respiratory diseases; endocrine/nutritional/metabolic diseases; digestive diseases). For all settings combined, there are holiday spikes for most major disease groups and for all demographic groups, except children. In the two weeks starting with Christmas, there is an excess of 42,325 deaths from natural causes above and beyond the normal winter increase. Christmas and New Year appear to be risk factors for deaths from many diseases. We tested nine possible explanations for these risk factors, but further research is needed.
Keywords: USA; Seasonal; Holidays; Disease groups; Substance abuse; Mortality
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